6/25/15 was on the low end of the expected change at -0.57 moving the component on yesterday's kill down to 77.85. Even though the NNNs are up a little today, the weakness of the component has closed "Gap" to -3.12. The summer strength in the price of hogs is just not showing up this year.

An ample supply of heavy hogs is part of the problem but it is most likely compounded by weak export demand.

The six-day moving average carcass weight this morning eased a little to 212.09#. That is just 1.96# below the heavy weights of last year and it is +6.83# over the same day in 2013. All these heavy hogs add poundage. Both packer and non-packer hogs were a bit lighter yesterday. Hot weather is probably starting to slow growth a little.

I'm going into the report with some long Q/V spreads. My bias is that there are going to be a few more hogs coming to market this fall and that will take the VVVs down more than the QQQs.

Best wishes,

dhm