very good fishing days, to be confident the first hour, what you have on the line. Actually, until I get the close, I have a hard time deciding(with any confidence) what is taking place, whether I have a sucker that might grow quickly, or a big one that might shrink quickly. I hate Mondays because it's a new ball game and until the day is over, you never know who is in control of direction. Mondays like to complete unfinished business from the prior week and reverse or set up the reversal. If the prior week ended with the look of completion, Monday can start a reversal process or extension with the first 15 or 60 min bar. Today we got the Big Fish extension.

I look at it this way, the first 60 min bar give me the direction and range. Each 15 min bar within that 60 min bar, gives me a pattern of boundries for potential north or south fishing lines to be set. The second 60 min bar gives me clearer markers for the north and south end that the 3rd 60 min bar tends to trade sideways within the previous bar range. Depending on the location of the 2nd 60 min bar is what I use to dictate directional momentum if the 3rd 60 min bar breaks the north or south end. Todays action shows the 2nd 60 min bar in the middle so its a stand off, no clear momentum winner. So this leaves the winner to be decided in the last hour based on percentage preferences. So today I'm looking at percentages favoring a standoff between 71.80-73.00 for Aug hogs possibly all the way to closing, so I've packed up my fishing gear expecting the parameters for tomorrows fishing to be set at the end of the day. I usually don't fish in the middle of the pond because the predictable percentages just aren't there for an unlucky guesser as myself. I've lost too much money making guesses in the middle of the pond. I know traders that are lucky middle pond fisherman but I have proven I'm not one of them.

I'm trading the Aug contract because I'm working on the cattle/hog spread again with an $80 spread target that I will start with the hog leg here at 71.00-72.00. If I don't get the cattle leg target at 154-155 it doesn't matter cause I don't really see more than 5-6 dollars downside for the cattle. However, I still have confidence that there is a $10 rally or more for Aug hogs even if I'm stopped out several times if the hogs are beat down below 70. The hog market beat down into July has always benefitted the Aug contract with sizable launches of $10 plus. One of the strongest addictions the hog market has going for it. The qualifier for the setup is the hard directional beat down into July but the report week tends to form the bottom base and the launch takes time to set up, so the July contract may not get much benefit as it helps Aug build the launching pad.

I did not have any fishing lines on the south end today because of the Monday 1st hour hang up I have. I also believe a round of profit taking will happen before the report which will also prove to be a "Sell the rumor--Buy the fact" type of reaction even if bearish, those numbers are already dialed in. Even if I'm wrong with this bias, I have my damage control working and I will have fishing lines on the south end for scalps if we get more dip tomorrow and the rest of the week. I may be proven wrong on my bias but my fishing lines will replace any damage I bring to the table trying to trade a hog market addiction.

I had 3 potential balance support areas with buy orders setting at 72.50, 72.00, and 71.50 which made my anxiety meter redline for 15 minutes until I was able to shed my 72.45. it kept hitting my 72.50 cut it loose order but not filling so I dropped it a nickel and then it popped through. I'm still holding the other 2 with stops setting at break even on both. I may go home with nothing to show for my efforts except my feet are still in tact.