MURICO.com Forum

The final Purchase Index for - - -

6-17-15 was down -$0.20 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will in the range of -0.15 to -0.45. The down trend in the index is still in place. That is hardly surprising with the kill this week running +13.26% over the same week last year and cut outs struggling. I was expecting the kill this week to be something more like +6.5% based on the last H&P report.

There is the possibility that the high kill rate represents some liquidation of market hogs by producers. I say that because the 6-day moving average carcass weight is showing some weakness. It might be that producers are shipping more hogs because they need the pens for the next crop that is coming on or they are wearying of the usual spring "Pop" in price is not occurring so they are deciding to get current before the fall decline begins. The H&) report later this month may help us understand what is happening. At any rate, the high kill rate suggests that the expansion phase of the hog cycle is still intact.

Scalping the NNNs was good yesterday but I missed two nice set-ups this morning. I long ago learned that a 'fella can't take every bus that comes down the street.

Best wishes,

dhm