6/16/15 was down -0.55 to 80.29. The NNNs are now trading discount to the component by 2.39. Considering the downtrend that is going on, this may be about right unless packers are under-bought for the Independence Day trade in which case they may end up sweetening their bids to bring in the hogs they need next week. At this point kill numbers are quite strong and cutouts are struggling.

The fairly small "Gap" between the component and the NNNs makes me think the market may be range-bound so I am going to look for set ups to scalp in and out of the NNNs. It is working well for me this morning.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 212.75#. That is -2.73# yr/yr. It might be that the strong kill numbers we are seeing represent some liquidation of market hogs. More likely, though, is that warmer weather is slowing the growth rate a little. I will be watching the data to see which scenario plays out. Packers are continuing to bring their hogs to slaughter at heavier weights than non-packers.

Best wishes,

dhm