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Re: Dewey, holding a position----

into the report, is not something I care to do either. Add to it, holding over the weekend, is more risk than I care to think about. However, if I was forced into the situation, I would have to go with a long Aug. Several factors that will have me looking to buy weakness(if there is any) following the report, the negative bias is already dialed into getting a negative report. I don't expect positive, but if the report even hints at neutral-----the downside has already been traded. Maybe we get a retest of this 74.00 area but then the addiction to reverse a directional move into early July leaves Aug hogs no other choice but rally $10 because everyone is already short and the smart money knows what the Aug contract likes to do when it takes over as front after a directional beat down, the month of June.

The last time the hog market was trading 77.00 in mid June, was in 2010. July expired at 77.85 and for whatever reason Aug was trading above 79.00 and didn't look back until it completed a $10 rally off of the July 77.00 price area. These quick $10 drops do seem to generate the $10 pendulum swing back to the top. The setup is there, the July addiction for reversal is lining up, and the fuel supply to trigger the launch(everybody is short) is topping off the tank. If Aug does not take out yesterdays low at 74.35, a reliable 3 bar buy signal will trigger the launch with a daily close above 79.45. That is the same area that began the Aug hog $8 rally to 87.50 in 2010. Aug hogs have a $5 playground for 2-3 weeks to tell us nothing but cause a lot of anxiety will trying to guess the outcome. A daily close above 79.45 triggers the launch, a weekly close above 79.45 confirms the launch a success. The 79.45 area was also the launching point back in late April that took it on a 3 week run to 85.05. We still have 8 weeks of seasonal energy favoring at least a retest of the 85.00 area. An unexpected surprise August rally does have a habit of getting carried away. It can easily happen when the southbound is filled to the rafters.

I have too many indicators lining up to ignore addictions. So I have no other choice but throw my fishing lines out at 76.67 a break of Mondays high before the pond is actually set for my liking. the reasoning is today is an inside day and if it breaks above the 76.65 high, the high percentage play is an inside day break of the high or low end of the previous bar will produce a runner. If I snag a pair I want to see it break above 77.00 and close the day above 76.65. Plan B is set 1 line @ 76.00 and another add on @ 76.67 then have a deposit order at 76.90 on the first catch(to abide with the Prime Directive), hold the second catch to see if the close can stay above 76.65. If I don't get a second catch, I go home with pocket change and see what the next day parameters set up for fishing. The fish like to feed on surprises and a lot more downside tomorrow would be no surprise, I have to believe the south end is nothing but suckers. Whether right or wrong, my choice is to ignore the south end early in the day. If it wants to run up to the 76.60 area first and reverse then I will throw my lines out at the south end. I may be over thinking it but this southbound looks mighty full so I don't want to try and squeeze in when there's only room for my foot. I've lost it too many times trying to do that.

Messages In This Thread

The CME component on the kill for - - -
Re: The CME component on the kill for - - -
Re: Dewey, holding a position----
Re: I forgot to mention-------
Re: I forgot to mention-------