The price discovery process to find TRUE VALUE for hogs. After 12 months of extreme swings of a ridiculous overpricing extension to a ridiculous underpricing extension. The rallies off of hitting bottom from these strong beat downs are generally Super Ball Bounces. The bounce that is currently in progress meets all criteria for a potential Super Ball Bounce to bring prices back in line with TRUE VALUE. This is the BALANCE ADDICTION all markets seem to have a PRIME DIRECTIVE to follow. Some times it happens quickly and sometimes it takes several cycles to Re-Balance the effects of the Steroid Swings we've had this decade.

The spring/summer seasonal price upswing is in progress, looking at the 4 years prior to last year we can get some idea for what the True Value area is for the seasonal upswing. There are always unforeseen variables but this is one of the few clues we have to make calculations and guesses for hog market price habits. The hog market is a market of precision habits, some easily recognized and some not when you start making technical and cycle comparison guidelines. The problem is, some things are relevant and some not and we never know until after the fact variables play their hand to make guidelines/habits relevant or not relevant. In my thought process, high percentage habits, HAVE TO BE RESPECTED. This lays the ground work for my bias and trading choices.

2010 the spring/summer seasonal upswing put in the seasonal high @ 90.17 in early May. Then came the FALL into FALL.

2011 the spring/summer seasonal upswing put in the seasonal high @ 107.47 in early Aug. Then came the FALL into FALL and extended into May for a 9 month cycle high to cycle low. The major swing cycles high to low or low to high generally take 7-9 months to play out if the market doesn't throw in some complicated patterns of 3 or 5 month sub cycles. I won't go into that because I would either bore you or confuse you and myself trying to explain that aspect.

2012 the spring/summer seasonal upswing put in the seasonal high @ 97.47 in early July(one of those 3 month sub cycles). Then came the FALL into FALL setting up a series of 3 complicated 3 month sub cycles.

2013 the spring/summer seasonal upswing put in the seasonal high @ 102.45 in mid June and traded a $7 range into the mid Aug high @ 102.47. Then came the FALL into FALL. The last hog report gave us the same numbers of hogs we had in the March 2013 report. This may be relevant or not since the demand picture may be completely different.

2014 the market took an OVER DOSE of steroids that triggered a new record trading range of a $76 playground and 95.77 is 50% of that playground, the Balance Area and the hog market has no choice but to at least trade back to that area. The ??? is WHAT TIME FRAME. The STEROID EFFECT could certainly give us a SUPERBALL BOUNCE to make it happen in a 3 month sub cycle play by early July. Just one of many possibilities. If it wants to takes it time depending on demand and hog numbers and play with our minds for several cycle rotations, it may not happen until 2016. I have no other choice but to believe TRUE VALUE is at least the same as the 90.00-97.00 high points of 2010 and 2012 but then that may have NO RELEVANT VALUE at all. Time will tell the REST of the STORY.