5/6/15 was up +$1.12 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the5/6/17 kill will scoot up between +1.00 and +1.30. Packers continue to be plenty anxious to buy hogs and continue to sweeten their bids by more than a buck a day. I suppose this should really be no surprise since there is generally an appetite on the part of the packers to have more hogs in front of the Memorial Day holiday.

The thing that is a little surprising is that the kill rate is not continuing to be quite as high as projected from the last H&P report. Last week the kill was almost 1.0% lower than projected from the H&P report and so far this week it is down more than 3.0% from projection. Yesterday packers had only 2.6% more hogs scheduled than they had on the same date last year.

It is beginning to appear the heavy kill rate this spring represented some liquidation of market hogs. I make this statement based primarily on the fact that the 6-day moving average carcass weight has been on the decline and is now -3.64# below the same date last year. That represents more one-day's kill having been pulled forward.

I have dusted-off my Hog Pricing Model and it is projecting that the cash settlement index for the KKKs will be 81.18 with a range of 80.68 to 81.68, so I bought a pair of KKKs this morning at 80.425. It probably won't be a big winner but may give me a tic or two.

Ka! Ching!! Ka! Ching!! I just off-loaded a pair of K/M spreads. My boat is not so low in the water but it has a bunch to get off before 5-14-15.

Best wishes,

dhm