5/1/15 was up +1.18 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for 5-1-15 will be up between +0.90 and +120. Packers were wanting hogs Friday and they were willing to pay to get them. Producers obliged and packers were able to make an adequate purchase at 99.0% of the moving average of daily purchases.

The spring rise in hog prices is firmly upon us now with the CME Lean Hog Index having been up every day since 4-2-15. Traders appear to be thinking that the index has a ways to go and have bid the MMMs to a +12.01 over the component on Friday. Usually the index does not gain that much between now and the MMMs going to cash settlement. In fact on average over the past 11-years, from this date to cash settlement the index has gained a paltry 2.18. In only two years has it gained more than 12-points and that was in 2012 and 2013. I just bought an MMM pig @ 81.05 and would like to scalp him off onto someone else for about 81.50. I didn't set my profit order soon enough. I could have been to the bank by now.

I still have plenty of long K/M spreads on my boat that I am wanting to unload. The market is tempting me to sell but not quite enough yet.

Best wishes,

dhm