4/28/15 was up +$1.07. The model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component of yesterday's kill will be up between +0.60 and +0.90. The spring advance in the index is continuing.

So far during April the component has gained an average of 0.38 per day. It it continues at that pace of gaining 0.38 per day from now until the MMMs go to cash settlement we will have a cash settlement of 73.29 for gain of 7.19. On average from this date to MMMs going to cash settlement, over the last eleven years the index has gained 3.75. A daily gain of 0.38 per day gives us nearly twice that gain.

In order for the Index to get up to the MMMs, the component needs to gain an average of 0.76. It looks like we might get that much today but will we average that much each and every day until MMMs going to cash settlement?

My bias is, "No!"

But I don't get to decide and since we can expect the unexpected in the hog market, I will be cautious on the side of the MMMs and keep them mostly spread with long KKKs.

Best wishes,

dhm