MURICO.com Forum

The final Purchase Index for - - -

4-20-15 was up $0.18 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for 4-20-15 will scoot up between +0.30 and +0.60. There is a strong seasonal tendency for the Index to continue climbing until Memorial Day. Since Lean Hogs began trading 19-years ago, the average gain from this date until the MMMs go to cash settlement has been +6.30. That makes the current "Gap" of 11.22 look a bit pricey until I look at 2013 when the index was up 21.40. During four of the last eleven years the Index has gained more than 11.22 from this point going into cash settlement.

When I look at the high kill rate, heavy carcasses and weak cutouts, it makes the the 4 out of 11 ratio look like a reasonable business man's risk. So I'm still short the MMMs.

Best wishes,

dhm

Messages In This Thread

The final Purchase Index for - - -
Re: DH, don't overlook-----
It is now clear that the winter price decline - -