4-16-15 was UP +0.46 TO 63.96. The MMMs are still premium to the component by 11.91 and premium to the KKKs by +5.475. I continue to have the bias that both are too high.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was nearly unchanged at 214.79#. That is down from last year by -1.87#. Producers seem to be committed to keeping their shipments current. Packer hogs were mildly heavier and non-packer hogs were mildly lower. Moreover the 5-day moving average percentage of packer-hogs in the kill mix moved up to 33.9%. It has been a while since we have seen it that high. This may be suggesting that packers have led the way in expansion but they don't seem to be leading the way in liquidation of market hogs.

I keep wondering about what is happening with the breeding herd but don't have a very good clue and it is quite a while until we get the next H&P report. Based on the price of the ZZZs and GGGs, I think traders have become comfortable with the idea that there has been a little liquidation of the breeding herd. I'm not convinced - yet.

The hog market is quiet today, especially the spreads. But I have been able to pull off some MMM short scalps.

Best wishes,

dhm