MURICO.com Forum

The final Purchase Index for - - -

4-14-15 was up +$0.87 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 4-14-15 kill will be up between +0.55 and +0.85. It takes something a bit more than the maximum projected jump to move the index up to the JJJs for cash settlement. It is beginning to look like the "Big Boys" with better information knew where to move the JJJs for cash settlement and they have them just about there.

I was able to grab some profits on a short MMM this morning and am watching to see if I can get short again on a rally.

The kill since 3/1/15 is running about 0.6% higher than projected from the last H&P report. On 3/2/15 the six-day moving average carcass weight stood at 214.62#. Yesterday it was 214.84#. This stable carcass weight makes me think that there isn't any liquidation of market hogs going on right now. Furthermore, the higher than projected kill rate leaves the door open to the possibility that producers have a few more market hogs than the last H&P report estimated.

At yesterday's settlement the MMMs were premium to the component by 17.49. The index does not usually tack on the much between now and when the MMM go to cash settlement. Therefore I am more comfortable being short the MMMs than long.

Best wishes,

dhm

Messages In This Thread

The final Purchase Index for - - -
Re: DH, I'm also comfortable----
Well, ITZ, it looks like you - - -
Re: I really missed the guess
You were not alone in - - -