4/13/15 was UP +$0.33 and my Hog Pricing Model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 4-13-15 kill will move up by something like +0.30 to +0.60. The JJJs are now premium to the component by 2.12 with three more days of data to come in. The Purchase Index generally gives a fairly good projection this close to cash settlement. If the projected change in the component on yesterday's kill is fairly accurate, then the component for today's kill and tomorrows kill will need to be around 1.00 to bump the Index up to the JJJs. As I look at the scheduled number of hogs, the six-day moving average carcass weight and the weak cutouts, I find myself thinking, "Packers probably won't throw that much cash at hogs today and tomorrow."

A lot of these hogs are already priced and scheduled and I'm putting a good bit of trust in the Hog Pricing Model's projection. This has caused me to load my boat with short JJJs and I will sell more if they put in much of a rally.

The K/M spread has opened to -7.125. That seems too low to me so I bought a trio again this morning. If the futures Goddess gives me a chance, I'll grab a few bucks and head for the bank.

Best wishes,

dhm