4-9-15 was UP +0.09 TO 60.40. That puts the JJJs premium to the component by 2.13 with four more days of data to get us to cash settlement. This morning when I got the morning reports showing only modest gains for the Purchase Index. Ssince it worked out well to sell three JJJs yesterday based on the modest gains in the Purchase Index, I decided to sell three more again today. The market has given me my profit objective already and I will sell again on a bounce.

The MMMs are now premium to the component by 17.90. During the last eleven years, the average gain in the CME Index from this date until the expiration of the MMMs, the index has tacked on 8.50. Only once has it gained more than 17.90 and that was in 2013 when it jumped 21.46. In 2014 it actually lost 12.49.

What's it going to do this year?

If I knew the answer to that, I wouldn't tell but would just trade it!!

This morning the 6-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 215.01#. The is only -0.87 under last year but it is +6.65# over 2013. It still appears that producers are well fixed for hogs.

My bias is the the Index will not move up enough to close either the "Gap" to the JJJs or the MMMs so I am trading them both from the short side. Just sold an MMM @ 78.40. I think I should have sold three.

If you hear a strange cracking sound, it is ITZ patting himself on the back for a great trade in the short June cattle hog spread. Way to go, ITZ!

Best wishes,

dhm