so tempting that I bought a pair of them. The market was kind to me and let me take them to the bank. I have scaled into the spreads on the way down and will begin scaling out if we head back up or will buy again if we head back to 8.00.

From the afternoon reports the model is projecting that the Purchase Index will drop again but packers have purchased some more expensive hogs the past few days so bringing them into the packing plants may bump the index up again on yesterday's kill. Pork production last week was 8.5% over last year. So far this week the kill is trailing the same period last year because of the low kill on Monday. The scheduled number yesterday was +14.08% over the same period last year so it appears that producers do have an ample number of market-ready hogs.

I'm just waiting and watching this expansion phase of the hog cycle play out. The falling 6-day moving average carcass weight may be telling us that producers are now in the liquidation phase of their market hogs. The smaller projected farrowings for the June to August period may be telling us that the liquidation phase of the breeding herd has already taken place or is taking place. If the pigs per litter makes another move up, more liquidation of the breeding herd may be needed in this lowered demand environment.

Best wishes,

dhm