4-6-15 came in right in line with the projection made by the hog pricing model at +0.15. The component needs to jump at a significantly higher rate than that if the 2.92 premium the JJJs are running over the Index gets closed by hog prices moving UP! The model is showing that the average daily rise in the component needs to be +0.425 to move the index up to the JJJs.

HHMMMmmmm!!!!

I'm sticking with two short JJJs.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 214.50#. That is -0.89# lower than on the same date last year and +6.37# over two-yeas ago.

The low-kill yesterday and the declining carcass weight may be an early hint that hog supplies are tightening-up. As I look at the 16.52 premium the MMMs are running to the component I really get tempted to get short the MMMs in a big way. So far I have been able to control the urge and am just short a pair.

Best wishes,

dhm