3/31/15 was down -$0.03 and my model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 3/31/15 kill will fall in the range of down -0.05 and up +0.25. The data is showing that the rate of lower bids by packers is slowing. The JJJs are premium to the component by 2.67. Traders are thinking that the Index has hit the trough on this cycle and there will now be a rally as we move toward the JJJs going to cash settlement.

Sometimes "The Market" is right and sometimes it is wrong. That's not much of a premium and there are 10-days for the Index to make that move up. It can do it all right.

But will it?

Not if producers decide to liquidate some of their heavies and become more current in their shipments.

I'm NOT short the JJJs. Actually I'm flat the JJJs.

Best wishes,

dhm