Good morning to all, Along with what I got on the hogs my broker gave rec to buy may corn and mar LC calls --
Dewey
Open interest in lean hog futures, on yesterday’s surge higher, increased by 6,159 cars. The largest rise was in the April hogs with June and Oct also seeing substantial increases. This is bullish. Hog weights were reported dropping by 1.9 pounds last week and they now reside up 2.8 pounds from last year. This is constructive. Cash hog prices were sharply higher yesterday. The product was lower but the volume of trade on the USDA closing pork report was extremely light, IMO, due to the severe weather on the east coast. So, I won’t reach any conclusions from a one-day calculation in the carcass. I need to see the carcass knife up and through $88.00 to signal that something meaningful is happening. We just might be entering a situation in which demand is increasing for pork and supplies are decreasing. There’s talk that packers want and need to kill 2.7 million pigs this week but the numbers are just not there. Finally, I’m hearing that China is fighting PEDv along with ASF as they re-build their herd. PEDv kills baby pigs. Thus, even if the breeding herd is vastly re-built, production may be disappointing as disease remains a major problem. I would not be surprised to see the Chinese book a substantial amount of pork in an effort to secure needed supply at highly favorable prices. Watch the Feb for confirmation. It’s simple, if they take out the double top on a close, it’s bullish. Look for fireworks in the Apr/Jun spread as well