6/27/19 was down -0.40 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will be down between -0.30 and -0.60.

With their lower b ids packers purchased 87.7% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 92.5% on the index hogs.

The USDA did come forth with an upward adjustment to the 3/1/19 inventory of market hogs as I was expecting. Producers have significantly expanded their production capability. Now we are at the mercy of the Chinese being willing and able to carry off the increased production. If the ASF has decimated the Chinese hog inventory to the extent speculated, the increased U.S. production will be the equivalent of "A Spit in the ocean" in trying to make up for their lost production. But first we have to get through trade wars and geo-political factors that impede trade and that may be easier said than done,

Without increased exports, the H&P report becomes very bearish and the high posted for the CME Lean Hog Index of 84.58 on 5/17/19 likely becomes not only the seasonality high but the Hog Cycle high as well. That would mean, then, that we would now be in the chase for both the next hog seasonality low and the next Hog Cycle low.

Let's hope that exports click-in.

Best wishes,

Doc