DH, let me share some info I just read from an analyst - We've slaughtered 900,000 hogs already this week compared to 885000 last week and 867,000 this week last year. Various sources are saying product is not moving, that demand is not going to be able to clear this much tonnage. If this is correct I'd assume it should be reflected in a lower cutout value by the end of this week. Technically, it takes a close well under4600 basis the Dec contract to give the chart the look of a meaningful top. I'd look for a sharply lower performance again on Wed if this market has topped. The latest COT report indicated the non-commercial trader continued to exit long positions as the market has rallied off the lows. Open interest has been declining during the process, suggesting that hedgers and small traders have been the buyers, also exiting positions. Sadly, prices now appear ready to resume the downtrend just as many small traders and hedgers have been forced out.
Well DH, we are still "all in" in a big-time way, maybe the rest of week will be as kind to us as today has been!!!
Dewey