8/15/16 was in fact up right in line with the model's projection at a plus 0.27 putting the component at 67.06. The VVVs are now discount to the component by -5.21. Since the Index has now shifted from a down-trend to an up-trend, it just might be that the VVVs will stabilize or even tack on a few tics.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight fell to 207.22#. That is -1.2# year/year. I continue to suspect that this lower carcass weight suggests that producers have liquidated some of their inventory of market hogs and this has caused the higher than expected kill rate lately. Index hogs are slightly lighter weight at 206.98# and packer hogs are now +0.19# over non-packer hogs. It appears that packers have been aggressive shippers of their owned hogs.

My bias is to be long the VVVs but it isn't working out well today.

I have been able to take profits on a short V/Z spread. a long J/K spread and a long M/N spread this morning. Now to see if I can re-load my boat.

Best wishes,

dhm

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