7/25/16 was down again by -$0.62 and the model projects that the CME Lean hog index component on yesterday's kill will cough up between -0.50 and -0.80. Packers only purchased 82.5% of the moving average daily purchases. My sense is that is all the hogs they wanted and lowered their bids to keep the hogs out of the plants. I waiting for the reports to come in but my expectation is that once again packer hogs will be moving out and we will start to see packer hogs coming to market lighter than the non-packer hogs.

Whereas the kill was running below projections from the last H&P report, the kill in now coming in higher than the last H&P report suggested. It looks like perhaps there was some category mix-up but the numbers may have been there. If that is the case, we might possibly see this mild surge in the kill rate continue for a bit.

I get the impression that packers' margins are in pretty good shape since they are getting their cost of product down and cutouts are holding up quite well.

I rode a short QQQ pig over night and now it has turned to "Green".

Best wishes,

dhm