jumped +$0.89 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will surge by something like +0.60 to +0.90. The spring rise in hog prices seems to be in full swing and it is being supported by higher cutouts. I don't this the firmness in prices yesterday represented packer beginning to gear up for the Memorial Day grilling surge but it will happen shortly.

There does not seem to be any shortage of hogs. Part of the underlying fundamentals that gives me this feeling is the firmness of the six-day moving average carcass weight. I is holding above last year and showing no tendency to decline.

I have been thinking for some time that the lower 6-day moving average carcass weight of the index hogs was suggesting that producers of index hogs are very current in their shipments. If index hogs represent the marginal producer and packers want a few extra hogs, it is the index hogs that may show a lot of price firmness.

I keep looking at the weight of packer hogs and maybe they have been holding back just a tiny tab in their shipments producing more poundage for when hog supplies dwindle.

Yesterday I piled a few more spreads on my boat that I move off, thus I am prepared today to hustle a few more off than I pile on. With a bigger boat I can still add some.

Best wishes,

dhm