11/27/15 was down (NOT UP) -0.29 to 55.52. The model really missed on its projection this time. The fact remains, though, that packers have some more expensive hogs purchased that will be coming to their packing plants and there is a bump-up in the index unless packers are able to purchase enough hogs at lower prices to offset Friday's purchase.

The six-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 214.13#. That is -2.12# yr/yr. Packer hogs were lighter by about 0.2# and non-packer hogs were heavier by about the same amount. With more non-packer hogs, the weight moved up.

Maybe we have seen the bottom of the down-trend and maybe we haven't. My bias is still that we have but the ZZZs I bought this morning are doing me no good nor are the short Z/G spreads that I have loaded onto my boat. Fortunately I have not over-loaded with them and before this run-up hit, I have made many trips to the bank as the spread moved up and down. My 20/20 hind-sight clearly shows that I should have been selling more Z/G spreads when they spiked this morning.

Friday I was able to make a trip to the bank by selling a long M/N spread. I have plenty more to sell and more room to buy if they retreat in price.

Best wishes,

dhm