10/22/15 was down -0.31 to 73.96 putting the ZZZs at a discount to the component of 9.66. That is quite a "Gap" and it will close on 12/14/15. There is quite a lot of time until then and the packers could let the air out of the Index by then.

One of the problems is that the kill is coming in somewhat lower than projected from the last H&P report. This morning the 6-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 212.01#. I can't tell whether producers are falling out of currency and have a bunch of heavies that will show up one of these day or whether they have some empty pens and are keeping hogs to heavier weights to make up for low numbers.

My feeling is that producers shouldn't be (and aren't) holding back hogs. This is not the time of the year to do that.

I just hope you are right in being long, Dewey, because I have a couple of longs that are making me a little un-easy. Spreads treat me much better than out-rights. Have been able to take several of them to the bank this morning and and have built a little inventory of long G/J spread and will add a few more if the spread goes down some more.

Best wishes,

dhm