10/20/15 was down -$0.25 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 10/20/15 kill will drop between -0.05 and -0.35. packers have a fairly nice inventory of hogs purchased and it just might happen that more or less expensive hogs were killed and this could cause the model to miss in a significant way. At any rate, a little more weakness seems to be on the horizon if we don't get it today.

Packers only made a fair purchase yesterday at 86.4% of the moving average daily purchases. The kill rate is coming in weak so far this week so packers may need to sweeten their bids to bring in the hogs.

The ZZZs are trading discount to the component by -6.57. The fundamentals seem to be saying that it is smarter to be long the ZZZs than to be short them.

Best wishes,

dhm