10/19/15 was down -$0.27 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will be down between -0.10 and -0.40. It appears that the post-Labor Day up-trend has ended and the post-VVV expiration down-trend is underway. With the ZZZs at quite a discount to the component, it is anticipated that the Index will back-track quite a bit by the time we get to cash settlement for the ZZZs.

Packers made a fair purchase yesterday with their lower bids getting 91.7% of the moving average daily purchases. On Friday they made a solid purchase at 116.4% of the moving average daily purchases. Last weeks kill fell short of expectations by a percent or two and this week is starting out on the weak side. The kill is not quite measuring-up to the numbers in the last H&P report.

Best wishes,

dhm