7/29/15 was UP +$0.48 AND the model projects that the CME LEAN HOG INDEX component on the 7/29/15 kill was be up between +0.15 and +0.45. This is exactly the scenario that ITZ is looking for. The QQQs are trading premium to the component by 2.25. Packers seem to be cooperating with the market and bidding higher for hogs. Yesterday they made only a fair purchase at 90.5% of the moving average purchases.

So far this week the kill is coming in significantly below projections from the H&P report and carcass weights are dribbling down a little. From this one might conjecture that producers are keeping quite current in their shipments and hot weather is taking its toll on the growth rate of market hogs.

I see no data points that make me think demand is anything other than fair. Pork in freezers last week was a lot higher than last year but that would be expected considering the shortage of market hogs last year.

I'm not nearly as bullish this market at ITZ nor am I as bearish as Dewey. So today I am just watching the trend lines looking for a reversal to make a few scalping tics. It didn't work yesterday but it is working all right today.

Best wishes,

dhm