3/24/15 was down -$0.56 and my hog pricing model projects that CME Lean Hog Index component on the 3/24/15 kill will drop between -0.40 and -0.70. The kill continues to run stronger than projected from the last H&P report but carcass weights are now below the one-year ago level by about a quarter of a pound.

Producers have been moving out their heavies. It is possible that some of these heavies are gilts being moved out of the breeding pens and the liquidation phase of the hog cycle is beginning. I don't think we have seen low enough prices long enough to usher in the liquidation phase. Perhaps we will have a better idea when the H&P report comes out on Friday. I still think the spring farrowing may be large enough to keep the price of the ZZZs at a fairly modest level.

The last H&P report had the December to May farrowings at +4.0% over the same period last year. If producers have overcome the PED virus problem and the pigs per litter saved moves up by several million head, the fall kill could be fairly strong. That's why I am short a couple of ZZZs one of which I sold yesterday on the rally.

Best wishes,

dhm