not suggesting a bottom to the CME Lean Hog Index quite yet. My hog pricing model is projecting that the component on today's kill will drop between 0.35 and 0.65. Cutouts firmed a little but not enough to make packers feel flush with $$$$ to throw at hogs. Producers still seem to be plenty willing to ship hogs at progressively lower bid prices.

With the MMMs trading premium to the index by 11.23, I'm pretty sure that the index is going to turn up before the MMMs go to cash settlement but I don't know how soon or how much it will bounce. On average over the past ten-years the index has gained 9.77 from this date to cash settlement. The most it has ever gained was last year when it gained 25.41. In 2009 the index actually dropped -4.07 from this date to cash settlement.

Generally most of the gains posted by the index occurred during April with it tending to be fairly quiet during May and June.

You know that the historicals don't mean very much, Chuck. The thing that is important is the supply and demand here and now. We know how supply is - packers are killing quite big numbers. Demand is a bit puny with the high dollar and the west coast dock problems.

I notice when ever I get a fairly strong bias one way or the other the market will dish me out a surprise.

Best wishes,

dhm