of the hog cycle but it is still unclear how aggressively producers are expanding. The picture is clouded a bit by the PED virus problem being somewhat subdued and producers liquidating a bunch of heavies. The last H&P report said the breeding herd was increased by 3.68% and producers had about 3.45% more market hogs that should be coming to market at this point. The kill since 2/1/15 has been up 6.7%. If the heavies that have been being liquidated have pumped the kill rate up by 3.3%, then the last H&P report was spot on.

If the breeding herd being up 3.68% and the piglets saved per litter takes a sharp up-tic because of no PED virus losses, then we could see fairly large numbers coming to market this fall.

My bias is that the liquidation of heavies amounted to a bit less than 3.3% and expansion is a bit more than the 3.68 reported on the last H&P report. If that is the case, the fall could bring some fairly large kill days.

Best wishes,

dhm