Test 6/13/08
2008-06-13 @ 05:11:37
The revisions that have been made to our T-Bond Portfolio Management Program are showing a lot of promise. You are invited to visit the "Results" pages of this web site for more information about the program.
I continue to believe the 14 Theories of the T-Bond Portfolio Management Program can form the basis of a viable money management system. You can view these theories by clicking the upper right hand corner of this screen.
Below is a table showing the hypothetical back-testing of the mild revisions made to our T-Bond Portfolio Management Program from 12/31/04 through 10/31/07 and actual results from November 2007 through 6/12/08.
The hypothetical back-testing had a winning ratio of about three out of four months. The actual performance since November is showing eight profitable months out of nine. The June options expired on 5/23/08 but the options expiring in June and July are still open trades. This means that there may be profits or losses for those months depending on how well the portfolios are harmonized to market conditions.
I am finding it interesting that the actual results are significantly better than the hypothetical results. It has been my observation that hypothetical results are often better because of the conscientious and/or unconscientious tendency to do some "Curve Fitting" in hypothetical back-testing.
Perhaps there has been some learning take place in implementing the mildly revised T-Bond Portfolio Management Program.
Another factor that is very important is the development and utilization of the calculated trading range as a tool to assist in the construction and maintenance of the option portfolios. Having a trading range as a guide is very emotionally stabilizing and emotions are a very BIG factor in this business!
I would like to invite you to continue to follow our performance now that these mild modifications are working.
Best wishes,
dhm
I continue to believe the 14 Theories of the T-Bond Portfolio Management Program can form the basis of a viable money management system. You can view these theories by clicking the upper right hand corner of this screen.
Below is a table showing the hypothetical back-testing of the mild revisions made to our T-Bond Portfolio Management Program from 12/31/04 through 10/31/07 and actual results from November 2007 through 6/12/08.
The hypothetical back-testing had a winning ratio of about three out of four months. The actual performance since November is showing eight profitable months out of nine. The June options expired on 5/23/08 but the options expiring in June and July are still open trades. This means that there may be profits or losses for those months depending on how well the portfolios are harmonized to market conditions.
I am finding it interesting that the actual results are significantly better than the hypothetical results. It has been my observation that hypothetical results are often better because of the conscientious and/or unconscientious tendency to do some "Curve Fitting" in hypothetical back-testing.
Perhaps there has been some learning take place in implementing the mildly revised T-Bond Portfolio Management Program.
Another factor that is very important is the development and utilization of the calculated trading range as a tool to assist in the construction and maintenance of the option portfolios. Having a trading range as a guide is very emotionally stabilizing and emotions are a very BIG factor in this business!
I would like to invite you to continue to follow our performance now that these mild modifications are working.
Best wishes,
dhm